Making sense of information, data and
statistics
One
thing you have to hand to the technological
age is the ability to accumulate and process
data. Data collection and analysis can
be carried out with the aid of computers
in a way which would have been inconceivable
in the past. But it also has its
dangers. One is the sheer volume
of data which exists and our questionable
ability to actually be able to go through
it and assimilate it. Another is that data is not information
unless it helps us or furthers our knowledge
in some way.
Here
we intend to keep abreast of - and interpret
where necessary - what is being published
in the UK and elsewhere about the issues
we consider important for in my
primers. As we see it there
is all manner of information being published
on a regular basis which is relevant to
us and to the formulation of policy decisions,
whether they are of a personal,
organisational or governmental
nature. The possible consequences we read
about every day with increasing frequency,
ferocity and feeling.
Longer
life expectancy projections and
the age profile of the
population are obviously very significant
indeed and provide different messages
for different audiences:
For marketing people it means a large target group of retired and quite affluent people, who have money to spend and time in which to spend it.
To the government, the medical profession and care workers it means large numbers of elderly people, possibly in declining health, who need looking after. This, of course, also provides business opportunities for some.
For business owners it means new issues and challenges as age discrimination legislation comes into effect.
To the government and business, not just in the UK, it means massive pension obligations which must somehow be tackled, probably by increasing the age of retirement.
To in my primers, it means being part of a whole generation of people of 50 and upwards who are hoping for another 30 or more years ahead of them, who do not feel old in the slightest, and who have neither the inclination nor possibly the financial wherewithal to just sit back and take it easy.
Some statistics to ponder
Statistics Summary
The period from 1971 to 2006 has seen the UK population grow from 56 million to 61 million and it is forecast to continue increasing at the rate of about 2 million every 5 years reaching 71 million in 2031.
However, these figures mask a range of changes taking place and issues arising within these figures.
The number of children required per woman to keep the population steady is 2.1 but the present rate, although rising, is only just over 1.8, suggesting a drop in population. The increase is, therefore, coming from people living longer and from a net migration inwards.
As a result of the low birth rate, 600,000 fewer young people will enter the workforce between 2010 and 2020. At the same time, the Chancellor’s targets for economic growth require 1.3 million people to join the workforce. When the declining number of school-leavers is taken into consideration, an additional 1.9 million recruits are needed to secure economic growth and provide industry with the resources to remain competitive.
The implications of this are as follows:-
Generally low unemployment/high employment rates
Skills shortages
Initiatives to bring more women into/back into the workplace
Increased numbers of workers from other countries
The need to retain older workers
With lower birth rates and greater longevity we see that, within the total UK population numbers, there is a huge shift in demographics. In 1971 nearly 7 in 10 were under 50 and 3 in 10 were 50 plus. By 2031 the proportion of those over 50 will have reached nearly 40%.
When put into the context of the working population the changes are even more dramatic. Those in what might be considered to be the normal working lifespan (16 – 64) fall steadily from 65% in 2006 to 60% in 2031 but those of 65 plus rise from 16% in 2006 to 22% and continue to grow thereafter.
By 2031, less than 25 years away, over one-third of the UK population will be over 55, while 22% will be over 65. There are two major implications of this. Firstly, the working lives of individuals will have to extend beyond 65 to ensure that there are enough in the workforce to fill the nation’s needs. Secondly, the notion that retirement is a few twilight years after a lifetime of slog is no longer relevant.
Retirement is likely to cover a number of years and must be paid for. However, those aged from 16 - 64 will not be enough in number to fund the retirement of those of 65 plus. The dependency ratio, which has been falling for a very long time, falls even further. In 1971 there were 4.6 people in the 16 – 64 bracket for every person of 65 plus but this will fall to 2.7 by 2031. It just won't be possible or acceptable for those working to fully support those in retirement.
We are, therefore, seeing the harmonisation of men/women retirement ages, the gradual increase in all retirement ages, and severe pressure being put on personal and state finances in respect of such things as pensions, health costs and care costs for the elderly.
Looking at life expectancy in more detail, in short people are living ever longer. Taking into account improving mortality rates men of 65 now can expect to live until they are 86 and women to 88. And the trend of greater and greater life expectancy will continue for the foreseeable future. Current 40 year-olds who make it to 65 can expect to live into their nineties or very close to.
Even with increased state retirement ages, it appears that men will have a retirement of about 22 years to look forward to and women will have about 24 years. However, 22 or 24 years is a long time to finance oneself without working, a long time to fill in an interesting, fulfilling and valued way, and a long time to stay physically and mentally healthy. It means people will work for, say, 40 to 50 years and then be without paid employment for 20 to 25 years. In itself this is a lot of years but it is also a large proportion of one's life.
But length of life is not automatically associated with quality of life and while life expectancy is increasing a number of our final years will be in less than perfect health. The Office of National Statistics calculates two types of health expectations in this respect. Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) defines healthy life as years in good or fairly good self-perceived general health. Disability-free Life Expectancy defines healthy life as years free from limiting longstanding illness. On average men can expect about 7 of their final years to be associated with a limiting longstanding illness and women about 9 years. There is still a lot to do.
In terms of working longer we are already seeing increased numbers of people working on beyond state retirement age. Over the past two years the general increase in working numbers has been in total about 2%. However, for men over 65 the growth has been 12.3% and for women the growth has been 14.7%. Although these latter numbers are still fairly low in absolute terms they are growing rapidly as many people choose or feel the need to continue working longer.
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